Market Rundown

*Stock data as of 1/19 market close, bitcoin as of 7pm 1/20. Here is what these numbers mean.

🚀 What’s happening: Markets continued moving higher over the past week on the back of strong earnings and a better than expected Michigan consumer Sentiment Index (side note: the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey done to measure how people feel about the economy, inflation, and their future expectations).

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (stock ticker: TSM) was one of several companies to report stellar earnings as we continue to move through earnings season. We highlight this company as it is one of the largest AI chip makers in the world (they make most of the chips in your Apple phones). They sounded very positive on the global economy and demand for AI chips in 2024, causing more optimism in general.

The 10-Year Treasury rose as a result of this strong growth as it implies inflation may stick around a bit longer (and so the Fed may not lower rates as quickly as currently forecast).

👪 Closer to home: We still don’t expect the Fed to start lowing interest rates in March as opposed to the rest of the market. We are a bit worried that inflation will stick around 3% for a while longer.

And when it comes to earnings, in the next two weeks there will be many more companies reporting so we suspend judgement until then (although so far so good).

Overall though we still remain constructive on the stock market from here and think after a few weeks of moving sideways (translation: not doing much) we may now return to the market moving higher.

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